So are the Giants good … or just lucky?
Well, the Giants are 21-16, exactly where they should be at this point in the season, according to MoreSplashHits theory of winning series at home and playing .500 on the road.
After Thursday’s win over Arizona, the Giants have played five home series. If they won 2 of 3 in each of those series, they would have a home record of 10-5 right now.
They have a record of 10-5 right now, thanks to a 6-0 homestand that included sweeps over the Rockies and Diamondbacks.
And they are 11-11 on the road — exactly .500.
But that’s where the expected stats stop. How the Giants got to their 21-16 record is pretty strange.
The Giants have amassed a 21-16 record while scoring 128 runs and giving up 126. If not for the Giants’ 10-0 win over the Dodgers in the third game of the season, the Giants actually would have been outscored by their opponents.
According to Bill James’ Pythagorean W-L record, the Giants should be 19-18. This stat helps measure a team’s luck. If their record is better than their Pythagorean record, their a little lucky.
OK, we’ll give James that.
But when you look at the Giants home games, the numbers get even stranger.
The Giants are 10-5 and have been outscored at home by seven runs.
That’s because nine of the Giants’ 10 wins have been one-run victories, including five walk-off victories.
The Giants are a major-league best 12-3 in one-run games. They are 9-0 in one-run games at home.
The bottom line is this: The Giants are 21-16 and in first place in the NL West despite hitting .236 as a team (ranked 12th in the NL), scoring 128 runs (15th in the NL) and have a team OBP of .305 (also 15th in the NL).
Some might say the Giants are lucky to be 21-16 right now, and that they’re more lucky than good.
But we these offensive numbers HAVE TO get better. And the schedule gets a bit more favorable in June, when the Giants have a 10-game homestand, and again in July, when they have stretch in which they play 13 of 17 games at home.
And they should have Pablo Sandoval back in the mix in June.
So if luck has played a role in their 21-16 start, we’ll take it. I don’t know if it’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s certainly better to be 21-16 than 16-21.