The Associated Press reported Saturday that the San Francisco Giants are finalizing a deal to bring veteran pitcher Jake Peavy to the Giants.
Details are still being worked out, according to the report. But the Red Sox will reportedly get minor league pitchers Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar.
The details being worked out likely involve money and other provisions. Peavy is making $14.5 million this season with the Red Sox, meaning he is still owed about $6 million. He has a player option of $15 million for 2015, but he is unlikely to reach the milestones to make that option vest. He would basically have to double his current innings output of 124 innings this season to allow that option to kick in.
Normally when Giants GM Brian Sabaen makes these midseason deals, I reserved judgment, preferring to defer to his better judgment.
The Giants have made several midseason deals over the past few years. Not all of the deals have worked out as the Giants hoped, but at least the Giants didn’t have to give up much to get them.
I wrote about this earlier, listing the prospects the Giants have given up in midseason deals the past five years. Really, only Zack Wheeler has amounted to anything, and the jury is still out on him.
But I’m going to say now that I don’t like this deal. To me, it represents of harbinger of bad news.
And here’s why.
CAIN SITUATION MUST BE BAD: When Matt Cain went on the disabled list after the All-Star break, manager Bruce Bochy said Cain could be down “one week, two weeks …. eight weeks. We just don’t know.” The Giants have been cagy with health reports of their players. So when they say they don’t know, we have to conclude they at least suspect. And the consumation of this deal must indicate they suspect that Cain may not return this season.
THE PRICE WAS TOO HIGH: In giving up Escobar and Hembree, the Giants parted with their No. 2 and No. 11 prospects, according to MLB.com’s preseason list of prospects. Both pitchers have appeared to be on the fast track to the majors in recent spring trainings. Escobar, 22, was thought to be in position to get a call-up this season, but he’s had a rough season in Triple-A. He’s 3-8 with 5.11 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 111 innings at Fresno. Hembree, 25, was thought to be the Giants “closer of the future” a couple of springs ago. But this season represents his third at the Triple-A level. He is 1-3 with 3.89 ERA, 18 saves and 46 strikeouts in 39.1 innings this season with Fresno. He was recently named a PCL All-Star. He did have a brief stint with the Giants in 2013, throwing 7.2 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts. So I might have been OK giving up one of these two pitchers, along with some lower-level prospects, for Peavy. But giving up both?
THIS AIN’T THE SAME JAKE PEAVY: This has not been a good season for Peavy, 33, in Boston. He’s 1-9 with 4.72 ERA in 20 starts. He leads the American League in home runs allowed with 20. Here are most stats for 2014 to sample
- His ERA+ of 83 is the lowest of his big-league career.
His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.81 is his highest since his second big-league season in 2003 when he was 22.
His WHIP of 1.427 is the highest of his career.
His Hit Allowed Rate of 9.5 is the second highest of his career.
His HR Allowed Rate of 1.5 is the highest of his career.
His Walk Rate of 3.3 is his highest since 2002.
His Strikeout Rate of 7.3 is his lowest since 2002.
Looking for good news?
The Giants are clearly hoping that a return to the National League, where he hasn’t pitched since 2009, will do Peavy good. His four starts against NL teams this season have all been quality starts.
They are also hoping that pitching in AT&T Park will provide better results than pitching in Fenway.
Well, Peavy is 14-2 with 2.21 ERA against the Dodgers in his career also looked good to the Giants. Although it should be pointed out that most of those starts occurred in 2009 or earlier when Peavy was a different pitcher and the Dodgers were a different team. Peavy did limit the Dodgers to one run on three hits in a complete game win in Dodger Stadium last August.
And for good news, Peavy make be on the mound when the Giants face the Dodgers on Sunday night, instead of Yusmeiro Petit.
As the Giants consider making a midseason season trade to bolster the run toward the 2014 playoffs, it might be a good idea to look at what happened to the prospects the Giants traded away in midseason deals over the past five years.
2009 Tim Alderson (for Freddy Sanchez)
Alderson was the Giants’ No. 2 pitching prospect (behind Madison Bumgarner) when he was traded to the Pirates for Freddy Sanchez. Alderson never made it to the big leagues and was traded to the Orioles organization in July 2013. He was 2-4 with 6.12 ERA for the O’s Triple-A affiliate this season before being released. He signed with the A’s and is currently pitching in Class A Stockton.
2010 Joe Martinez and John Bowker (Javier Lopez)
Martinez, a decent long reliever/spot starter with the Giants, made five appearances with the Pirates in 2010. He spent most of the next three seasons in the minors with the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Indians. He was 0-3 with 16.36 ERA with the Angels’ Triple-A team before retiring this April at age 31. Bowker played for the Pirates’ Triple-A team after being acquired in the trade and earned a September call-up. He made the Pirates 2011 roster as a reserve, but spent most of the season in the minors before being traded to the Phillies late that season. In 2012, he went to play in Japan.
2010 Dan Turpen (Ramon Ramirez)
Turpen, a reliever never, made it out of the minors, first with the Red Sox, then Rockies and currently Twins. He’s pitching for the Twins’ Double-A team.
2010 Evan Crawford (Mike Fontenot)
An outfielder, Crawford never made it above Class A ball. He’s currently playing Independent ball in the Frontier League.
2011 Henry Sosa, Jason Stoffel (Jeff Keppinger)
Sosa made a brief appearance with the Astros in 2011. He was later released and signed with the Dodgers this season. He is 1-2 with 3.72 ERA in seven starts for Triple-A Albuquerque. Stoffel, a reliever, is still in the Astros’ system. He’s 2-3 with 2.91 ERA this season for Triple-A Oklahoma City.
2011 Thomas Neal (Orlando Cabrera)
Neal, an outfielder, spent 2011 and most of 2012 in the minors before earning a September callup from the Indians. He was released in January 2013 and signed with the Yankees, earning a couple of brief promotions in June and July of 2013. The Cubs claimed him off waivers in August of that year. He signed a minor-league deal with the Reds in 2014. He’s hitting .254 in 80 games for the Reds’ Triple-A team.
2011 Zack Wheeler (Carlos Beltran)
The former No. 6 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Wheeler was the Giants’ top prospect when he was dealt to the Mets for Beltran. Wheeler was promoted in 2013, going 7-5 with 3.42 ERA in 17 starts. He is 5-8 with 3.78 ERA in 20 starts this season for the Mets.
2012 Charlie Culberson (Marco Scutaro)
Culberson has bounced back-and-forth between the Rockies and Triple-A since being acquired. He is hitting .188 with 2 HR and 12 RBI in 61 games for the Rockies this season.
2012 Nate Schierholtz, Tommy Joseph, Seth Rosin (Hunter Pence)
Schierholtz hit .273 with 1 HR and 5 RBI for the Phillies after the trade in 2012. He signed as a free agent with the Cubs in 2013, hitting 21 HRs, 68 RBI and .251. He had 5 HR, 31 RBI and is hitting .199 this season for the Cubs. Joseph, a catcher, was the key piece in the Pence deal. But he has not realized his potential yet as concussion injuries have slowed his progress. He hit .209 in 21 games for Triple-A Leigh Valley last year. He’s hitting .282 in 21 games for Double-A Reading this season. Rosin pitched 2013 in Double-A before being taken by the Mets in 2013 Rule 5 Draft and traded to the Dodgers. He was on the Dodgers’ opening day roster, but never appeared in a game before being claimed off waivers by the Rangers in late March. He pitched in three games before being DFA’d by the Rangers in April and returned to the Phillies. He is 2-5 with a 4.46 ERA as a reliever for the Philles’ Double-A and Triple-A teams this season.
We’re past the All-Star break. Time to start talking about magic numbers, right?
OK, maybe not. But there is a magic number for the Giants and winning baseball games … at least in the past month.
That the number of runs you have to hope the Giants score tonight against the Phillies. Or any night for that matter.
Since June 20, the Giants are 11-0 when they score four runs or more in a game.
When they don’t, they are 0-15.
Not an earth-shattering stat exactly.
For the season, the Giants are 40-10 when they score 4 or more runs in a game, and 10-34 when they do not.
But here’s one stat that I thought was interesting.
When opponents score two runs in a game, exactly two runs, the Giants this season are 8-9.
EIGHT AND NINE when the opponent scores just two runs.
Not like you had to explain that stat to Matt Cain or Ryan Vogelsong.
As the post All-Star break began, San Francisco Giants fans were lifted with some hope.
The Giants had a modest three-game winning streak. It appeared they were starting to get healthy with the return of Brandon Belt and Marco Scutaro.
But then the reality of Monday hit like a rock.
The Giants placed Matt Cain on the disabled list for the third time this season. And it felt very similar to his first two trips.
Before the All-Star break, Cain was reshuffled in the rotation to the No. 5 spot. Manager Bruce Bochy said, at the time, there was no specific reason for this and that the Giants just wanted to give Cain more time.
Then came news Friday of Cain’s “cranky elbow,” but that he was still expected to start Tuesday against the Phillies.
Then came news of his third DL stint on Monday with elbow inflammation. Cain is eligible to return from the DL Sunday against the Dodgers, but at this point it looks very doubtful.
It was like deja vu from his first two stints, first with a finger laceration and later with a hamstring strain. First reports said “yeah, he’ll be OK and make his next start” followed by “DL time.”
So Yusmeiro Petit gets the call again to fill in for Cain.
On the surface, you can say Petit’s 3-3 record and 3.86 ERA this season is better than Cain’s 2-7 mark and 4.18 ERA. But then you look at Petit’s relief/start splits.
He’s 2-1 with 2.45 ERA in relief and 1-2 with a 5.81 ERA in his five starts.
George Kontos, who has been pitching very well lately in Fresno, gets the call to fill Cain’s roster spot.
Then came news that Belt would be placed on the seven-day concussion DL. Belt was hit in the face with a thrown ball during batting practice on Saturday. Belt was looking to receive a throw from shortstop when another one came in from second base.
Belt started the game Saturday and came out of the game with dizziness. He’ll be eligible to return on Sunday vs. the Dodgers.
Adam Duvall got the call to fill Belt’s roster spot. Duvall, who got called up in June, has hit 3 HRs, 11 RBI and .310 in his last 10 games with Fresno.
And, finally, the Giants took a flyer on veteran second baseman Dan Uggla.
When Uggla was released by the Braves last week, several Giants fans on Twitter was screaming for the Giants NOT to sign him. They compared him to Brandon Hicks, except older and not nearly as good a fielder.
But given their options at second base, it’s a no-risk move to sign Uggla to a minor-league deal and send him to Fresno in an effort to find his stroke.
Uggla has an Aug. 1 opt-out date. That means if he hasn’t been called up to the Giants by then, he can opt-out of his deal and find a better one somewhere else.
It gives the Giants about 10 days to see if Uggla can help.
The best-case scenario is that the Giants catch a little lightning-in-a-bottle with Uggla, similar to what they did in 2010 with Pat Burrell and Cody Ross.
At worst, Uggla spends 10 days in Fresno. That should be long enough.
Everyone hits in Fresno. Juan Perez is hitting .337 in Fresno. Hicks is hitting .333 since he got sent to Fresno.
If in 10 days Uggla isn’t hitting in Fresno, let him take his opt-out.
All of the talk around San Francisco these days revolves around one question.
“Is Tim Lincecum back?”
After two Cy Young seasons and two world championship seasons, Giants fans want to know if The Freak is back to his form from 2008-11 after a very bumpy stretch since 2012.
Well, one way to answer that question is to say Tim Lincecum has, in fact, never been better.
After his past four starts since June 25, Tim Lincecum’s stats are as follows …
- 30.1 innings pitched
- 10 hits allowed
- 1 earned run
- 9 walks
- 24 strikeouts
- 0.30 ERA
Now compare that to his best four-start stretches over his career.
July 16-Aug. 1, 2007: 2-0, 26.1 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 13 BB, 26 K, 1.37 ERA
April 19-May 4, 2008: 2-1, 27.1 IP, 24 H, 3 ER, 11 BB, 23 K, 0.99 ERA (3 scoreless outings out of four)
Aug. 12-27, 2008: 3-0, 27.2 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 12 BB, 35 K, 0.98 ERA
July 27-Aug. 12, 2009: 2-0, 32.2 IP, 21 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 37 K, 1.10 ERA
April 5-23, 2010: 4-0, 27 IP, 19 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 32 K, 1.00 ERA
May 4-21, 2011: 2-1, 29.2 IP, 21 H, 3 ER, 11 BB, 30 K, 0.91 ERA (3 scoreless outings out of 4)
July 9-28, 2011: 3-1, 25 IP, 15 H, 3 ER, 15 BB, 26 K, 1.08 ERA
Aug. 7-24, 2011: 3-1, 29.2 IP, 18 H, 3 ER, 11 BB, 29 K, 0.91 ERA
Clearly, he’s never had a four-game stretch that was as good as his current run in terms of run prevention. In fact, it’s not even close.
It’s also important to note that his strikeout rate on the current stretch is not as high as in his previous impressive stretches.
But also in only two of the previous stretches did Lincecum give up fewer walks than his current streak, and in none of his previous stretches did he allow fewer hits than his current one. Again, it’s not even close.
So is Tim Lincecum back to being the pitcher he was in 2008-11.
No. He’s a different pitcher. But he’s getting the results.
Now some folks out there are still a bit skeptical, and they take Lincecum’s recent run with a grain of salt.
Freak me once, shame on you. Freak me twice …
They’ll point out that with all of his recent success, his ERA still sits at 3.66. Lincecum hasn’t had an in-season ERA that low (after May 1) since the end of the 2011 season.
But consider this. If you remove Lincecum’s two worst starts of the season (April 9 vs. Arizona, 4 IP, 7 ER; June 3 vs. Cincinnati, 4.1 IP, 8 ER), and Lincecum’s ERA drops down to 2.86. That represents 17 of his 19 starts.
Also consider he has posted quality starts in six of his past seven starts (just missing one — 6 IP, 4 ER — vs. Arizona on June 20), and in nine of his past 12 starts. And one of those non-quality starts was when he was lifted after 96 pitches despite throwing five scoreless innings vs. the Cubs.
Yes, Lincecum still has a big home-road disparity in his numbers. But 9 of his last 12 starts at home. So it’s hard to tell if his recent success is due to pitching so often at home, or if his high road numbers are due to the fact that he made four road starts prior to May 8, and only three since, when he has started to figure out how to pitch without being overpowering.
So while the jury is still out for some, we are impressed and encouraged by Lincecum’s recent success.
Will he be the Cy Young-winning super stud of 2008-09?
Maybe not. But can he be a top-of-the-rotation quality starter?
We’re beginning to think “yes.”
Brian Sabean’s inability to fortify bench in offseason is cause of San Francisco Giants’ midseason slide
Brian Sabean made this bed. Now, we all have to sleep in it.
Luckily, with the way the Giants are playing, the ZZZZ’s coming easily.
Last offseason, the Giants went into the offseason with some basic questions
- Who will replace Barry Zito in the rotation?
- Would the Giants re-sign Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong and/or Javier Lopez?
- Who is going to play left field?
The Giants answered those questions by signing Tim Hudson and Michael Morse and bring back Lincecum, Vogelsong and Lopez.
And, for the most part, those moves have worked out for the Giants. Most fans smart enough to realize the Giants were going to be in on top-of-the-market free agents, like Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury, would agree with that.
But there was one area I kept waiting for the Giants front-office to address. And it wasn’t an area that was going to cost of ton of money, and yet would pay big dividends down the road.
And that is the bench. And more specificially, the infield bench.
Now, the Giants were expecting that Marco Scutaro would be ready to open the season. But when you have a 39-year-old second baseman with a history of back trouble, wouldn’t want some insurance?
And Giants fan watched the likes of Tony Abreu and Joaquin Arias last year and knew that there were better options to serve as Scutaro’s backups.
I watched as Emilio Bonifacio signed with the Cubs, Skip Schumaker signed with the Reds, Mark Ellis signed with Cardinals. I even wondered why the Giants weren’t in on Justin Turner when he received a non-roster invite by the Dodgers to Spring Training.
So who did Sabean bring in? Brandon Hicks, an infielder with 55 games of big-league experience and a career batting average of .133.
In fact, the entire bench the Giants broke camp with was not all that impressive: Hector Sanchez, Arias, Ehire Andrianza, Gregor Blanco and Juan Perez.
But the Giants poor benched was masked in the opening weeks of the season as the Giants … a) got off to hot start at plate, particularly with power; b) stayed healthy; c) caught lightning-in-bottle with Hicks’ unexpected power output.
And then the Giants’ power output cooled off, injuries came (first to Brandon Belt, then Angel Pagan) and Hicks’ offensive production completely dried up.
Now, when manager Bruce Bochy looks for alternatives to spark the lineup, he’s finding a bench that is bare.
How bare? Consider this.
I took the “ideal” starting lineup of every National League team (this is the lineup each team hoped to put onto the field to begin the season provided everyone was healthy), then subtracted the production of those players (and batting production from pitchers) from the total production of the team this season to measure the production of each team’s bench and midseason minor-league callups.
In doing that, I found, with no great surprise, the Giants have the third-worst bench batting average in the NL at .201 through July 4.
To make matters worse, the two teams that rank lower in bench production than the Giants have not depended on their bench that much.
The Cardinals had the worst bench batting average in the NL. But the Cardinals have had the third-fewest bench at-bats this season. The Phillies are No. 2 in bench batting average and No. 2 in fewest bench ABs.
However, the Giants have the third-worst bench batting average, but have required the third-most bench ABs in the National League.
So they have one of the worst benches in the league, and they’ve had to depend on that bench more than most of the teams in the league.
That’s a bad combination.
SO what’s the solution?
Well, they can get healthy. The Giants are hopeful that both Scutaro and Pagan will be able to return to the lineup after the All-Star Break. In a couple of days, Pablo Sandoval should be able to return.
Apart from that, they need to improve the depth of this roster. And that won’t cost a truckload of money or gut the farm system.
Remember in 2010, the Giants added the likes of Cody Ross and Mike Fontenot. In 2012, it was Scutaro. When acquired, none of these deals with thought to be blockbusters. But they did produce two NLCS MVPs and key cogs in those title runs.
And they need a little luck. For every Cody Ross, there’s a Jose Guillen. For every Scutaro, there’s an Orlando Cabrera.
But the answer to the Giants’ woes may not be that far away. Sabean missed his chance to deal with this shortcoming in the offseason. But he gets his second chance as the trade deadline approaches.
With Adam Duvall in the lineup today against the St. Louis Cardinals — which might be the last game we see Duvall play with Giants for a while with Brandon Belt due off the DL Friday — we thought we’d commemorate the players who hit a home run for the San Francisco Giants in their big-league debut.
- Adam Duvall, June 26, 2014 (Mike Leake, Cin)
- Brett Pill, Sept. 6, 2011 (Wade LeBlanc, SD)
- a-Brandon Crawford, May 27, 2011 (Marco Estrada, Mil)
- John Bowker, April 12, 2008 (Todd Wellemeyer, StL)
- Eliezar Alfonzo, June 3, 2006 (Orlando Hernandez, NYM)
- b-Will Clark, April 8, 1996 (Nolan Ryan, Hou)
- Randy Kutcher, June 19, 1986 (Craig Leffterts, SD)
- c-Johnnie LeMaster, Sept. 2, 1975 (Don Sutton, LAD)
- b-John Montefusco, Sept. 3, 1974 (Charlie Hough, LAD)
- a-Bobby Bonds, June 25, 1968 (John Purdin, LAD)
- Orlando Cepeda, April 15, 1958 (Don Bessent, LAD)
b-first big-league plate appearance
c-inside-the-park home run